Iran: Failure of negotiations will signal the “political death” of Rohani

Iran’s Foreign Minister warned Secretary of State Kerry that if the talks fail, the moderate Rohani government will collapse and radicals will rise to power.

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The Iranian foreign minister warned the United States that failure of nuclear talks may signal the “political death” of President Hassan Rohani, who is considered moderate, and it will accelerate the rise of extremist forces in Iran, officials told Reuters.  

According to Iranian officials, Minister Mohammed Zarif raised the issue in a number of meetings in the last weeks with Secretary of State John Kerry.  “Rohani is on the front line, so naturally he will get hurt,” said an Iranian official familiar with the content of the talks between Zarif and Kerry.  

A senior U.S. official denied that the U.S. received that message from Iran: “We’ll leave the assessments of Iranian politics to the Iranians, but this rumor is not true.” However, in the West there is also an agreement that the failure of the talks could be a serious political blow to  President Rohani, who is though to be close to the West.  

Despite the American denial, Iran insists that the issue was raised several times in the past, and even in a recent conversation between Kerry and Zarif yesterday, at the security conference in Munich.  “Failure of the talks will result in Rohani being marginalized and its effects will weaken him dramatically,” say the sources.  The sources say that the conservative Revolutionary Guards are expected to take over if Rohani fails.  

Rohani was elected as president of Iran in 2013 with the stated goals of lifting the sanctions on his country, rebuilding the economy, and getting the country out of economic and political isolation.  However, Rohani is suffering from a growing power struggle with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said that Iran will learn to remain strong despite the sanctions. 

Photo Credit: Channel 2 News/AP

In Iran they are saying that Rohani and Obama are facing severe pressure, reducing their abilities to compromise during the talks.  Western officials demand that lifting the sanctions on Iran should be done gradually over a number of years, but Iran wants a total removal of all sanctions within six months.  

“Rohani thought that if he would talk nicely and not call for the destruction of Israel, Western powers would rush to sign any deal with Iran,” said a senior Western diplomat.  “His calculation was wrong.  The powers might was a quick agreement, but they are limited by the pressure of the American Congress, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.” 

Photo Credit: Channel 2 News/Reuters

Iran and the world powers hope to come to a final agreement on the nuclear talks in March, which will lead the permanent agreement to be signed by June 30.  Various reports indicate that the United States has already agreed to compromise on the amount of centrifuges that Iran will be allowed to run.  

President Obama can suspend significant economic sanctions on Iran by himself, but the final removal would require the consent of Congress, where a Republican majority is reluctant to ease the sanctions.  Meanwhile, the American Senate proposed a bill intensifying sanctions against Iran if a permanent agreement is not reached by June 30.