France thinks it has finally found a way to deliver those Mistral warships to Russia

REUTERS/Stephane Mahe The Mistral-class helicopter carrier Vladivostok in the Saint-Nazaire shipyard.

The apparent success in negotiations over a cease-fire agreement for Ukraine could lead France to grant permission for the delivery of two Mistral-class warships to Russia "as early as next week," according to Russian media.

The independent newswire Interfax quotes a military-diplomatic source as saying the agreement of the cease-fire deal could mean the Elysee Palace can now grant permission for the transfer of the Mistral-class helicopter carriers. The ships could be delivered in the first half of March.

Of course, this is not the first time in which those on the Russian side of the deal have expressed hope that a conclusion to the stand-off is imminent. Back in November the Russia side reportedly set a firm deadline for the end of the month for the first of the ships to be delivered, threatening legal action to recover its investment if the French side reneged on the deal.

However, on November 25 the  French government announced that it was postponing the sale of the Mistrals to Moscow "until further notice," and the Russians backed away from their threat to take DCNS, the French company responsible for delivering the ships, to court.

In a statement from the official Twitter account of French President François Hollande back then, the government said the situation in Ukraine did not meet the conditions necessary for the sale of the first Mistral ship, the Vladivostok.

Le président @fhollande considère que la situation en Ukraine ne permet toujours pas la livraison du premier #Mistral pic.twitter.com/lTaawd9jSg

— Élysée (@Elysee) November 25, 2014

Problems with the €1.2 billion deal emerged in September when, with the original deadline for the handover of the first ship, Vladivostok, fast approaching, Hollande imposed two conditions necessary for the sale. These were a cease-fire that was being observed by all sides and tangible evidence of progress toward a political settlement over Ukraine's future.

The delays have already proved costly. Last month DCNS' parent company announced a €100 million hit to its 2014 earnings because of "contract cost overruns" in its defence unit. DCNS was expected to post a loss of €300 million for the year as a whole.

Providing the cease-fire holds this time (and that is a huge caveat), Hollande's conditions might finally be claimed to have been met. The agreement, reached between the leaders of Germany, France, Russia, and Ukraine, is due to take effect Sunday, after which time both the Ukrainian government and pro-Moscow rebels will be required to withdraw heavy artillery.

View gallery

.

REUTERS

However, even as the deal was being announced the government in Kiev announced that 50 tanks and 40 missile systems had been spotted crossing the border into the country from Russia. The reports have added to fears that the next few days will allow the rebels to make a big push to capture further territory with fighting intensifying around the railway town of Debaltseve.

As journalist Max Seddon reported:

Saturday ceasefire gives rebels lots of time to capture Debalstevo. @avdeev saw an uptick of serious weaponry on the way, likely from Russia

— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 12, 2015