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Friday, 27 February 2015

Europe Isn't Really Worried About Putin

Europe Isn't Really Worried About Putin

<p>How low can you go in defense spending?</p>
 Photographer: Guido Bergmann/Bundesregierung via Getty Images
HOW LOW CAN YOU GO IN DEFENSE SPENDING?
 PHOTOGRAPHER: GUIDO BERGMANN/BUNDESREGIERUNG VIA GETTY IMAGES

For all the alarmist rhetoric about Russian barbarians at the gate, NATO countries are reluctant to put their money where their mouth is. Only the countries closest to Russia's borders are increasing their military spending this year, while other, bigger ones are making cuts. Regardless of what their leaders say about Vladimir Putin, they don't seem to believe he's a real threat to the West.

7 Reasons the U.S. Should Stay Out of the Ukraine-Russia Fight

7 Reasons the U.S. Should Stay Out of the Ukraine-Russia Fight

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/MSNBC/Components/Photo/_new/pb-130617-obama-putin-meeting.photoblog900.jpg

The ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia appears to be holding, after Kiev's forces lost ground in a recent spate of fighting. Fortune could yet smile upon Ukraine, but as long as Russia is determined not to let the separatists fail, the former's efforts likely will be for naught. Only a negotiated settlement, no matter how unsatisfying, offers the possibility of a stable resolution of the ongoing conflict. Indeed, the alternative may be the collapse of the Ukrainian state and long-term confrontation between the West and Russia, at great cost to all sides.

Americans no longer regard China as top enemy

Americans no longer regard China as top enemy

U.S. President Barack Obama pays a state visit to China after attending the 22nd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Meeting.
Getty Images
U.S. President Barack Obama pays a state visit to China after attending the 22nd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Meeting.
Americans no longer see China as public enemy number one, with Russia now cited as the country's top adversary, according to a new poll.
Twelve percent of Americans named China when asked which country they consider the U.S.'s greatest enemy in Gallup's annual World Affairs poll, down from 20 percent in 2014 when it topped the list.

BBC report: "Jihadi John's" identity has been exposed

BBC report: "Jihadi John's" identity has been exposed


The masked Islamic State extremist, who appears beheading hostages in the organization's videos, known as "Jihadi John", has been identified.

"Jihadi John" beheading hostage Photo Credit: IS video/Channel 2
The BBC has reportedly exposed the identity of the maskedIslamic State executioner "Jihadi John". The report claims that he was identified as Mohammed Emwazi, a young British man who is believed to be from West London, and who is known to the local security forces.

Ethics team can’t grill me: Chenge

Ethics team can’t grill me: Chenge


Mr Andrew John Chenge, a Harvard law graduate and former Attorney General 
Dar es Salaam (The Citizen). To many, it was simply a battle between a suspect and a commission. To the legal fraternity, it was a legal tussle involving a former attorney general and a group of lawyers led by a retired judge.

Thursday, 26 February 2015

'Jihadi John' killer from Islamic State beheading videos unmasked as Londoner

'Jihadi John' killer from Islamic State beheading videos unmasked as Londoner

By Michael Holden and Mark Hosenball
ABC News confirms identity of ISIS militant  &quot;Jihadi John&quot;
ABC News is reporting that US authorities have identified the ISIS militant known as "Jihadi John."

The black-clad militant brandishing a knife and speaking with an English accent was shown in videos released by Islamic State (IS) apparently decapitating hostages including Americans, Britons and Syrians.LONDON/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The masked "Jihadi John" killer who fronted Islamic State beheading videos has been identified as Mohammed Emwazi, a British computer programming graduate from a well-to-do London family.

NATO Chief: Obama’s Plan Isn’t Stopping Russia

NATO Chief: Obama’s Plan Isn’t Stopping Russia

The U.S. and its allies are giving nonlethal supplies to Ukraine—and punishing Putin financially. But that’s ‘not changing the results on the ground,’ NATO’s top general admits.
Chris Wattie/Reuters
(Reuters)-NATO’s top commander bluntly told the Pentagon on Wednesday that the allied effort to slow Russia’s advance in Ukraine isn’t working. He delivered that message as the Obama administration appeared to back away from earlier indications that the U.S. would arm the Ukrainian army against pro-Putin forces.

The terrifying vulnerability of the U.S. military

The terrifying vulnerability of the U.S. military
Whenever a military crisis breaks out, American hawks talk about sending in the troops, and doves sputter about imperialism. But the key role of the U.S. military is usually far away from these hot spots, and instead in Eastern Europe, the Taiwan straits, the Korean peninsula, and the world's shipping lanes.

China submarines outnumber U.S. fleet: U.S. admiral

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - China is building some "fairly amazing submarines" and now has more diesel- and nuclear-powered vessels than the United States, a top U.S. Navy admiral told U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday, although he said their quality was inferior.

NATO Commander: US Lethal Aid to Ukraine Won’t Stop Russia

NATO’s top military commander told United States lawmakers that even if the U.S. armed Ukraine’s army, they wouldn’t be able to stop the Russians from expanding further into Eastern Ukraine.

Why Israel is fighting Obama's Iran deal

Why Israel is fighting Obama's Iran deal


Secretary of State John Kerry is pictured. | AP Photo
AP Photo
Days before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s controversial address to Congress, Israeli officials are citing a little-understood element of the Iran nuclear talks as their chief concern about a potential deal.
Concerns that a final deal restricting Iran’s nuclear program will “sunset” any agreement as early as 2025 have thrown a new jolt into Israeli officials who had grown resigned to the idea that Obama will allow Iran a greater uranium enrichment capability than they would like.
Story Continued Below

Wednesday, 25 February 2015

Netanyahu declines Democrats' invitation for meeting during visit

Netanyahu declines Democrats' invitation for meeting during visit

Israeli PM Netanyahu weekly cabinet meeting
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting at his office in Jerusalem, February 15, 2015. REUTERS/Abir Sultan/Pool
By Patricia Zengerle
Reuters.WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declined on Tuesday an invitation to meet with U.S. Senate Democrats during his trip to Washington next week.

Jewish heirs sue Germany in US over medieval art treasure

Jewish heirs sue Germany in US over medieval art treasure

Heirs of Jewish art dealers sue Germany in US, demanding restitution of medieval art treasure

Germany Sued Over Medieval Artwork Worth Millions
The German government and a government-controlled museum are being sued over the return of medieval artwork worth millions. Mark Kelly reports. Image: AP
BERLIN (AP) -- The heirs of Nazi-era Jewish art dealers say they have filed a lawsuit in the U.S. suing Germany and a German museum for the return of a medieval treasure trove worth an estimated $226 million.

North: When Israel Says 'Never Again' and 'Never Forget,' They Mean It

North: When Israel Says 'Never Again' and 'Never Forget,' They Mean It

Lt. Col. Oliver North was on “The Kelly File” tonight to discuss the potential deal between the U.S. and Iran regarding the Iranian nuclear program.

France Warns Russia And Its Allies Not To Advance On Ukrainian Port City

France Warns Russia And Its Allies Not To Advance On Ukrainian Port City

Ukrainian servicemen stand guard on a street near a burning building after a shelling by pro-Russian rebels of a residential sector in Mariupol, eastern Ukraine, last month.

Ukrainian servicemen stand guard on a street near a burning building after
 a shelling by pro-Russian rebels of a residential sector in Mariupol, eastern 

Ukraine, last month.Reuters /Lando
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said this morning on French radio that if separatist troops advanced on the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, that would constitute a new red line.

"I told my counterpart Sergei Lavrov that such a move would mean Russia wants to make a link with Crimea, and that would change everything," said Fabius.

Cyprus signs military deal with Russia

Cyprus signs military deal with Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Cyprus' President Nicos Anastasiades shake hands as they exchange documents at a signing ceremony in the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2015. Russia and Cyprus have signed a military cooperation agreement that would allow Russian navy ships to make regular port calls on the island. (AP Photo/Yuri Kadobnov, Pool)
MOSCOW (AP) — Cyprus on Wednesday signed a deal with Russia allowing its navy ships to make regular port calls on the island.
The deal with European Union member Cyprus, which also hosts British military bases, comes amid Russia-West tensions over Ukraine, the worst since the Cold War times.

Syria's Assad meets French lawmakers

Syria's Assad meets French lawmakers

Syria&#39;s President Bashar al-Assad meets with a French delegation headed by Senate member, Head of the Senate’s French-Syrian Friendship Committee ...
Syria's President Bashar al-Assad (center L) meets with a French delegation headed by Senate member, Head of the Senate’s French-Syrian Friendship Committee Jean-Pierre Vial,(center R) in Damascus February 25, 2015, in this picture released by Syria's national news agency SANA. REUTERS/SANA/Handout via Reuters
DAMASCUS (Reuters) - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met on Wednesday with French parliamentarians, the first such meeting since France closed its embassy in 2012 and announced that Syria's leader had lost all legitimacy.

Tuesday, 24 February 2015

JK grants charter to Aga Khan varsity

JK grants charter to Aga Khan varsity


President Jakaya Kikwete holds talks with His Highness the Aga Khan at State House yesterday before the Head of State granted a charter to the Aga Khan University. PHOTO | EMMANUEL HERMAN  

Dar es Salaam (The Citizen). President Jakaya Kikwete yesterday granted a charter to the Aga Khan University, making it the first foreign-based institution to get the document.

Map: European colonialism conquered every country in the world but these five

Map: European colonialism conquered every country in the world but these five

It's no secret that European colonialism was a vast, and often devastating, project that over several centuries put nearly the entire world under control of one European power or another. But just how vast can be difficult to fully appreciate.

Britain to help train Ukrainian army to counter Russian threat

Britain to help train Ukrainian army to counter Russian threat

LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister David Cameron said on Tuesday Britain would deploy military personnel to Ukraine in the next month to help train the Ukrainian army, warning that Moscow would move to destabilize other countries if left unchallenged.
"Over the course of the next month we're going to be deploying British service personnel to provide advice and a range of training, to tactical intelligence to logistics, to medical care," Cameron told a committee of lawmakers in parliament.
"We'll also be developing an infantry training program with Ukraine to improve the durability of their forces."
(Reporting by Andrew Osborn and Kate Holton; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge)

Al Jazeera to publish secret documents on Iran and the Mossad

Al Jazeera to publish secret documents on Iran and the Mossad

The Mossad contradicted Netanyahu on Iranian nuclear program

The Mossad contradicted Netanyahu on Iranian nuclear program Photo Credit: Reuters / Channel 2 News

Al Jazeera announced that in the next few days it will be publishing hundreds of secret documents, which include information on the methods of operation of intelligence agencies across the globe, including on the Israeli Mossad and Iranian nuclear program.

Edward Snowden says these two things prove he's not a Russian spy

Edward Snowden says these two things prove he's not a Russian spy

Edward Snowden says these two things prove he's not a Russian spy
Edward Snowden says these two things prove he's not a Russian spy
Handout/Getty Images National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden addressed speculation he has worked with Russian intelligence agencies during a lengthy Reddit question-and-answer session on Monday. 

Report: Mossad was less alarmed than Israel premier on Iran

Report: Mossad was less alarmed than Israel premier on Iran

File - In this Sept. 27, 2012, file photo, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel shows an illustration as he describes his concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions during his address to the 67th session of the United Nations General Assembly at U.N. headquarters. Israel's Mossad spy agency in October 2012 had a less alarmist view of Iran's nuclear program than an assessment delivered by Netanyahu at the United Nations just a few weeks earlier, according to a purported secret cable published Monday, Feb. 23, 2015, by two media outlets. (AP Photo/Richard Drew, File)

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel's Mossad spy agency in October 2012 had a less alarmist view of Iran's nuclear program than an assessment delivered by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the United Nations just a few weeks earlier, according to a purported secret cable published Monday by two media outlets.

4 Iranian Threats That Terrorize Saudi Arabia

4 Iranian Threats That Terrorize Saudi Arabia

The Middle East is experiencing unprecedented upheaval, and by all indications the region is likely to remain in turmoil for the foreseeable future. From Yemen to Bahrain to Syria and Lebanon, the sectarian agendas and geopolitical maneuverings of the two regional heavyweights – Iran and Saudi Arabia – will likely remain the key drivers fueling the regional fire.

Putin Throws Wrench in Iran Nuke Talks

Putin Throws Wrench in Iran Nuke Talks

In an announcement that seems certain to further inflame opinions about a proposed deal to limit Iran’s nuclear capacity, it was revealed today that Russia’s state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec has offered to sell advanced anti-aircraft missiles to Iran.

This is Putin's objective in Ukraine: Expert

This is Putin's objective in Ukraine: Expert

Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to take control of Ukraine along the border down to Crimea, and it's beginning to look like that may happen, retired Army Col. Jack Jacobs told CNBC on Monday.

Military expert: Russian snap military drills could turn into assaults on Baltic capitals

Military expert: Russian snap military drills could turn into assaults on Baltic capitals

Marko Djurica/Reuters Russian soldiers The Baltic states are becoming increasingly unnerved by the growing number of Russian military drills close to their borders, Damien Sharkov of Newsweek reports,

John McCain: ‘I’m Ashamed Of My Country, I’m Ashamed Of My President, I’m Ashamed Of Myself’

John McCain: ‘I’m Ashamed Of My Country, I’m Ashamed Of My President, I’m Ashamed Of Myself’

Arizona U.S. Sen. John McCain said something on CBS’s “Face the Nation” Sunday about the U.S.’s handling of the ongoing standoff between Russia and Ukraine that surprised host Bob Schieffer.

Saturday, 21 February 2015

JK, Kagame break the ice at EAC summit

JK, Kagame break the ice at EAC summit



East African leaders from left; President Yoweri Museveni (Uganda), President Uhuru Kenyatta (Kenya), President Jakaya Kikwete (Tanzania), President Paul Kagame (Rwanda), President Pierre Nkurunzinza (Burundi) and Deputy President William Ruto during the 16th Summit of EAC Heads of State at KICC, in Nairobi. President Kikwete yesterday took over the chairmanship of the EAC from Mr Kenyatta. PHOTO | NMG 


Nairobi. Heart-warming gestures by President Jakaya Kikwete and President Paul Kagame of Rwanda injected hope of a new beginning in the strained relations between the two countries during the East African Community (EAC) Heads of State Summit here yesterday.

CIA’s Nuclear-Bomb Sting Said to Spur Review in Iran Arms Case

CIA’s Nuclear-Bomb Sting Said to Spur Review in Iran Arms Case

Parchin Test Site in Iran
The Parchin site in Iran is seen in this satellite image on Dec. 9, 2012. AEA inspectors don’t only rely on spy data, according to one of the diplomats, who pointed to the agency’s assessment of Iran’s Parchin Military complex, where the country is alleged to have tested high explosives. Satellite imagery analysis and open-source data also play roles, the person said. Source: DigitalGlobe via Getty Images


(Bloomberg) -- Details of a 15-year-old Central Intelligence Agency sting emerging from a court case in the U.S. may prompt United Nations monitors to reassess some evidence related to Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons work, two western diplomats said.

Ukraine must pay for Russian gas sent to rebel areas: Medvedev

Ukraine must pay for Russian gas sent to rebel areas: Medvedev

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev speaks during an interview at the Ostankino television center in Moscow on December 10, 2014 (AFP Photo/Dmitry Astakhov)
Moscow (AFP) - Ukraine must pay for Russian gas being supplied to rebel areas in the country's war-torn east, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Friday, raising the possibility of another gas dispute in the midst of winter.

Collision Course: The Looming U.S.-China Showdown Over Taiwan

Collision Course: The Looming U.S.-China Showdown Over Taiwan

Chinese coercion against democratic Taiwan would challenge the basic principles of the liberal regional order, as well as U.S. reliability.
A new crisis in relations between China and Taiwan is likely in the coming months, one that will pose more acute difficulties than in the past for Taiwan’s benefactor, the United States.

An Iran nuclear deal is coming into focus, but there's one glaring problem

An Iran nuclear deal is coming into focus, but there's one glaring problem

REUTERS/Rick Wilking US Secretary of State John Kerry shakes hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif before a meeting in Geneva, January 14, 2015. The Iranian foreign minister might be habitually screaming at his American counterpart, but that they're scheduled to renew talks in Geneva this week raises the possibility that a final nuclear deal could be in the offing.
Time is running out, after all: Barring another extension, the Joint Plan of Action, signed in Geneva in November 2013, will expire July 1. The sides planned on reaching a "political agreement" by March 1.
And as the Brookings Institution's Suzanne Maloney argued in a January 21 article, the talks have been a disappointment even for some supporters of the negotiating process, with Iran showing little flexibility on key issues.
The urgency of the negotiating round has reportedly led to the US softening its position on a crucial demand.
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netanyahu
REUTERS/Gali Tibbon/Pool Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting at his office in Jerusalem, February 1, 2015. This week, controversy erupted when the Israeli government allegedly leaked supposed details of the American negotiating stance, which included assertions the US would be willing to let Iran keep 6,500 uranium-enriched centrifuges under a final agreement.
A New York Times report on February 17 stated the US offered to let Iran keep 4,500 centrifuges in an offer made last fall, but that "there is now talk of raising that figure to 6,500 centrifuges."
This isn't that important, at least according to an anonymous American official quoted by The Times.
“They tell part of the story, like how many centrifuges we might consider letting the Iranians hold,” the official said in an apparent reference to the alleged Israeli leaks. "What they don’t tell you is that we only let them have that many centrifuges if they ship most of their fuel out of the country.”
The thinking on display here is that stockpile control is the key to a nuclear deal. US negotiators believe restrictions on enrichment and rigorously enforced enriched uranium stockpile limits — along with other caveats, like the aforementioned requirement that Iran ship its enriched uranium to Russia, where it will be converted to nonweaponizable fuel rods — will be able to prevent Tehran from accumulating enough highly enriched uranium to construct a nuclear weapon undetected.
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REUTERS/Caren Firouz An official from Iran's Atomic Energy Organization speaks on his mobile phone in front of uranium enriching centrifuges at an exhibition of Iran's nuclear achievements at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran, April 20, 2009.
By this logic, the problem with Iran's nuclear program isn't its 19,000 centrifuges, secretive and heavily guarded nuclear facilities, weaponization and advance centrifuge research, Revolutionary Guards Corps involvement, ballistic-missile program, and plutonium reactor.
Instead, the problem is the much more narrow, and solvable, issue of preventing Iran from having enough plutonium or highly enriched uranium needed to construct a bomb within a certain time.
So the latest reports suggest Iran would be allowed to keep between 4,500 and 6,500 centrifuges. According to Olli Heinonen, a senior fellow at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and a former deputy director general for safeguards at the International Atomic Energy Agency, a nuclear weapon requires 5,000 separative work units, or SWUs, of uranium enrichment. (SWU is a standard unit for measuring the effort needed to separate uranium isotopes.)
Each Iranian centrifuge produces 1 SWU a year, although the country has 1,000 more advanced machines capable of producing 5 SWU. So it would take Iran about six months to create a single nuclear weapon with 10,000 centrifuges if it had no previous stockpile of low or highly enriched uranium to bump up to weapons grade. At the moment, Iran has over 8 metric tons of low-enriched uranium, shortening its path to a bomb.
Interestingly, one of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei's stated "red lines" in negotiations is 190,000 SWU a year (No. 8 below).
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The reasoning for letting Iran have those 4,500-6,500 centrifuges in any deal is that they wouldn't be numerous or efficient enough to produce nuclear weapons faster than international monitors could detect them. Just keep enriched uranium stocks below a certain level, the thinking goes, and the Iranian nuclear crisis is solved as Tehran keeps it nuclear infrastructure while its economy is open to the rest of the world.

However, there's one glaring problem with this train of thought: Heinonen told Business Insider that "there's no technical reason" for Iran to possess 5,000 centrifuges.
That said, there are three primary reasons why Iran would keep enriching uranium after a nuclear deal: securing its enriched uranium stocks for civilian reactors, maintaining its mastery of the nuclear fuel cycle, and remaining on the threshold of a nuclear weapons capability (or actually obtaining it) so as to further project its power throughout the region.
Only the last of these requires nearly as many centrifuges as Iran is asking for and what US negotiators are reportedly willing to give.
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ayatollah ali khamenei
Caren Firouz/Reuters Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Reason No. 1 for enrichment: Getting enriched uranium for a civilian reactor
If Iran were really building a nuclear program for purely civilian reasons, it could just purchase all of its enriched uranium from a foreign seller. The price per SWU has gradually increased in recent years, but not to the point where buying foreign enriched uranium is more expensive than say, building an expensive indigenous program that may result in diplomatic isolation and crippling international economic sanctions.
Most countries have figured that out by now. There just aren't that many places with their own domestic uranium enrichment infrastructure.
Russia is the global enrichment leader, producing 26 million SWU a year, according to the World Nuclear Association. Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, and French chip in another 20 million or so combined, largely thanks to Urenco, the venerable European multi-national widely considered to be the civilian industry leader. Japan, Brazil, and Argentina all have small enrichment facilities. India enriches uranium for its nuclear submarine program, and North Korea has its own illicit program.
The United States has dozens of civilian nuclear reactors. But the US actually imports the vast majority of its enriched uranium and has no currently operating industrial scale enrichment facilities, Heinonen says.
>Here's the Department of Energy's breakdown on the origin of civilian use enriched uranium since 1994. Ever since the late 1990s, US power plants have acquire most of their enriched uranium from overseas:
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US Energy Information Administration The US isn't the only country with an extensive nuclear infrastructure and no active enrichment program. South Korea has 23 nuclear power plants, but isprohibited from developing an indigenous enrichment capability under a bilateral agreement with the US.
Which brings things back to Iran. As Heinonen explained, Iran would need somewhere on the order of 200,000 centrifuges (i.e., near Khamenei's red line amount) to domestically supply enriched uranium for the Bushehr reactor. Otherwise, Russia could to continue to fill stocks.
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Iran Nuclear Plant
Raheb Homavandi/REUTERS A security official stands in front of the Bushehr nuclear reactor, 1,200 km (746 miles) south of Tehran, August 21, 2010.
"Iran has this long-term contract from Russia so they don't need to do enrichment themselves," Heinonen, the Harvard fellow, told BI. "And if they did do it themselves they need many more centrifuges."
Significantly, there's no reason Iran absolutely needs to enrich its own uranium. The price of an SWU's worth of enrichment has gone up slightly over the past few years, but the estimated $27 million to fund Khameini's demand of 190,000 SWUs pales in comparison to the heavy economic cost of the sanctions Iran has had to endure as a result of its program.


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iran SWU
US Energy Information Administration This chart shows the price for running one SWU. Operating 190,000 SWUs would cost about $27 million.
And uranium itself has actually decreased in price lately, even if the price per SWU is creeping incrementally upward. 
Basically, global enrichment capacity far outstrips demand.
"There's an oversupply of enrichment services," Heinonen said. "At this point in time, it's almost double [the global] enrichment capacity compared to the needs."
At the end of the day, as the World Nuclear Association notes, Iran's major project developing uranium enrichment capability "is heavily censured by the UN, since no commercial purpose is evident."
Reason No. 2: Mastery of the fuel cycle
Heinonen sees one practical reason for Iran to keep its centrifuges: keeping up its mastery of the nuclear fuel cycle even under a greatly reduced program. "I think they want to be kind of a threshold state, where they can take a step either for peaceful or non-peaceful purposes," Heinonen says. "In order to maintain your skills you need to work with [the centrifuges] ... you cannot just shut them down."
Keeping up this nuclear expertise would conceivably require a "demonstration scale" cascade where Iran runs "several parallel cascades, to demonstrate that you can handle a great number of centrifuges," says Heinonen. 
Nevertheless, that doesn't explain why Iran would need 4,500 to 6,500 centrifuges. According to Heinonen, a "demonstration cascade" can be maintained with only 1,000-2,000 centrifuges.
Reason No. 3: Staying on or surpassing the nuclear threshold
Importantly, allowing Iran to keep 4,500-6,500 centrifuges would be to let Tehran remain within striking distance of a nuclear weapon.
The reported number of centrifuges allowed is thousands more than what Iran would need to maintain some minimum degree of nuclear enrichment expertise. Furthermore, 4,500-6,500 centrifuges would place Iran on the cusp of what it needs to build a nuclear weapon in between six months and a year. That would allow them to maintain the threat of short-term nuclear breakout — and the amount of time assumes Iran has no hidden uranium stockpiles or enrichment facilities.


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iran talks kerry
REUTERS/Joe Klamar/Pool US Secretary of State John Kerry steps out as Britain's Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, EU envoy Catherine Ashton and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (LtoR) pose for photographers during their meeting in Vienna, November 24, 2014. There's a larger principle at stake. A deal including 4,500 centrifuges or more would make Iran one of the few countries in the world to have its uranium enrichment formally legalized under an international treaty.
Strikingly, this wouldn't happen as the result of an alliance with the US. The US has a nuclear cooperation treaty with India, for instance, but Delhi is a longstanding US economic and political ally and a fellow democracy. And this wouldn't be a reward for Iran's virtuous behavior on the world stage. Iran's uranium enrichment is banned under several UN Security Council resolutions. Tehran is still a US-listed state sponsor of terrorism, and its assistance is responsible for Bashar Assad's regime hanging on in Syria.
Under an agreement that allows Iran to keep thousands of centrifuges, Iran will be given a green light to enrich uranium — something it has no practical need to do — thanks to decades of recalcitrance, single-minded policy dedication, and outright deceit. It would be a historic and nearly unprecedented accomplishment, and one with unknown implications for nuclear proliferation.