Alexander Lukashenko: Europe's Last Dictator
Most men, even the alphas, would take pains to avoid a showdown with Vladimir Putin. But Alexander Lukashenko is not most men, even among the alphas. In 2013, after Russia’s macho president boasted he’d pulled a 21-kilogram pike out of a river, his Belarusian counterpart announced he’d caught a catfish that weighed 57 kg.
That is Lukashenko in a nutshell: a 60-year-old who would do almost anything to assert his strength and remain in power. It’s not for nothing has he been the president of this half-forgotten, ex-Soviet state for 21 years — almost since the USSR’s dissolution. When he’s not busy fishing, “Europe’s last dictator” — as Condoleezza Rice once called him — rules Belarus like his private fiefdom, with methods straight out of the dictator toolkit: He controls all branches of government, censors the press and makes opposition leaders disappear.
Little-Known Dictators: A series by Laura Secorun Palet
But here’s the thing: Lukashenko’s iron fist might be what’s keeping little Belarus stable — no small feat for a country that’s wedged between voracious Russia and violent Ukraine. Instead of siding with the Kremlin, his longtime ally and economic benefactor, Lukashenko has made a careful show of neutrality. He walks a thin line, but should he keep his balance, Belarus could end up a model for other sandwiched nations in the region. At home, his independence has proven popular. Over the past six months, Lukashenko’s approval ratings have grown from 31.9 percent to 42.3 percent, the highest in three years.
It’s all about balance. On the one hand, Belarusians feel close to Russia — most speak Russian — and grateful for its economic support. On the other, yoking yourself to the Russian economy is not such a good move these days, what with tumbling oil prices and the crashing ruble. “So they are thankful to Lukashenko for staying neutral in this conflict,” says Ryhor Astapenia, analyst at the Ostrogorski Centre, a nonprofit think tank focused on Belarusian politics.
Lukashenko claims to be a “man of the people,” because he was no rich oligarch or party factotum before he ran for president, as an independent, in 1994. It didn’t take long for this former head of a state-owned farm to fall in love with power. In 1996, he won a flawed constitutional referendum to greatly expand his authority — including the ability to dissolve parliament — and survived an impeachment petition by several outraged deputies.
Granted, none of this sounds very democratic, but, hey, who says democracy is what Belarus needs? Certainly not Lukashenko. “People think it is the leader that influences the country but it’s the country that influences the leader. People from Belarus actually prefer an authoritarian president,” argues Grigory Ioffe, professor at the department of geospatial science at Radford University, expert in Belarus and author of Reassessing Lukashenka: Belarus in Cultural and Geopolitical Context. It’s not improbable, given the context: Authoritarianism may provide something of a comfort to Belarusians who fear spillover violence from Ukraine.
Hugo Chávez and Alexander Lukashenko (right) embrace at Miraflores Palace in Caracas on June 26, 2012.
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