Israel Wont go to war against Hezbollah because it Can't Win

Israel Wont go to war against Hezbollah because it Can't Win

Hezbollah rocket headed for Haifa in the Second Lebanon War in 2006.

Neither Hezbollah nor Israel will go to war right now. Israel cannot defeat Hezbollah now any more than it could in the war n 2006, which ended in a military stalemate but a strategic victory for Hezbollah.

Hezbollah won’t go to war against Israel because it cannot afford to lose its already questionable prestige in Lebanon due to the terrorist party’s having entered the conflagration in Syria and bringing it inside Lebanon’s borders.

Hezbollah’s attack in Israel yesterday was an eye-for-an-eye retaliation for Israel’s pre-emptive bombing raid in Syria two weeks ago in which a dozen Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard soldiers and commanders were wiped out.

Their plan to attack the Israeli side of the Golan Heights bore out fears that Hezbollah wants to be able to strike Israel along the entire northern border, from the Mediterranean Coast of Lebanon to the eastern side of the Golan Heights.

“Hezbollah” does not just mean the terrorist party and army. It also means “Iran,” its financial and military mother.

“Hezbollah” also means “Lebanon,” to a large extent. Hassan Nasrallah’s party dominates the government, but the world recognizes “Lebanon” and not “Hezbollah.”

Hezbollah, diplomatically, is a state within a state. It has one of the largest military arsenals of any army in the world, with 120,000 missiles in Lebanon, and now in Syria, poised to pulverize not only northern Israel but also Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

It is an act of war when a country’s army attacks another nation and kills two soldiers. “Restraint” is not the proper response. The proper response is an all-out retaliation to end the enemy threat.

But officially, neither Lebanon nor Iran attacked Israel yesterday. The provocateur was a terrorist army and party. Israel cannot wipe out the Hezbollah army because, like Hamas and other terrorist groups in Gaza, it operates from within civilian population centers and now also is located in the maze of hell that is called Syria,” which no longer exists as a nation except in name.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said yesterday, “My recommendation to those who challenge us in the north is to take a look at what happened in Gaza.”

Bull Stuff.

Hamas had several thousand rockets, some of them sophisticated, but Israel’s Iron Dome system was able to intercept most of them. In addition, the land mass of  Hamas-controlled Gaza is all of 139 square miles (360  square kilometers), surrounded by the Mediterranean Sea on the west and an unfriendly Egypt and Israel on the south, west and north.

Lebanon is nearly 30 times larger with 4,015 square miles (10,400 sq km). Besides the Mediterranean Sea on the west and Israel on the south, Lebanon — and Hezbollah — have Syria for a neighbor in the east and north.

Netanyahu said, “The (Israel Defense Forces) is responding now to the incident in the north. The IDF stands ready to act forcefully on all fronts.” In truth, he was only reassuring Israelis and sending shivers down the spines of the West, but he and Hezbollah know very well that Israel is not going to  “act forcefully on all fronts.”

Israel does not have an anti-missile system that can protect the country against 120,000 missiles, some of them very long-range rocket and probably with chemical warheads. The IDF indeed could crush Lebanon. It could punish the country for allowing and actively supporting Hezbollah.

Before doing so, who knows how much Hezbollah would cripple Israel with missiles.

But everyone, especially Netanyahu, knows that any large-military operation would leave Israel isolated in the world

The United States stated yesterday its  usual wishy-washy position that backs Israel with a big “but”:

We support Israel’s legitimate right to self-defense and continue to urge all parties to respect the Blue Line between Israel and Lebanon. We urge all parties to refrain from any action that could escalate the situation.

That was the same language used every time Hamas attacks Israel with a missile.

Any Israeli attack would be “disproportionate.” The international community does not apply the rules  of war when it comes to Israel, which always must show it is so Christian that it can turn the other cheek and not use force.

As  disgusting it sounds, the bitter truth is that Israeli won’t go to war over the deaths of two soldiers. It should but it won’t.

Israeli does not have the self-confidence, spiritually and diplomatically, to attack Hezbollah and Lebanon.

Nine years ago, Hezbollah kidnapped and murdered two soldiers and sparked a five-week war that proved that exposed, once again, Israel’s real weakness.

The Foreign Minister at the time was Tzipi Livni, who now threatens to become the next Prime Minister of Israel on a rotational basis with Labor party chairman Yitzchak Herzog.

Livni signed on the dotted line of United Nations Resolution 1701 that was a cease-fire version of the Oslo Accords. Instead of the Palestinian Authority, it was the United Nations that promised to disarm “foreign armies,” without naming Hezbollah.

The resolution stated:

Pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of July 27, 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state.

The resolution called for:

 Israel to withdraw all of its forces from Lebanon in parallel with Lebanese and UNIFIL soldiers deploying throughout the South…

Disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon (implying but not stating Hezbollah)

No armed forces other than UNIFIL and Lebanese (implying Hezbollah and Israeli forces) will be south of the Litani River

No foreign forces in Lebanon without the consent of its government….

The importance of full control of Lebanon by the government of Lebanon .

Of course, Israel withdrew. Not only did UNIFIL not dis-arm Hezbollah, UNIFIL allowed it to continue to smuggle weapons from Iran, via Syria.

The resolution left Hezbollah ins a stronger than ever position and weakened Israel, which proved again its military may be strong but its backbone Is too weak to support a military victory to safeguard the country.

Below is a video of how Hezbollah terrorists escapes an Israel Air Force bombing of a missile launcher in the war in Lebanon in 2006.

Bin Laden WAS NOT buried at sea, but flown to the U.S. for cremation at secret location, claims intelligence boss in leaked email

The fate of Osama bin Laden’s remains have been called into question after emails leaked from an intelligence analysis firm say the body of the terror leader was actually sent to the U.S. for cremation.

Terrorist: Osama bin Laden was killed on May 1, 2011 in the now-famous raid by Navy SEAL Team Six at his secret Pakistan compound

According to the emails, the Al Qaeda boss was shot and killed during the famous Navy SEAL Team Six raid on his compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, was transported back to the U.S. and cremated.

The emails were allegedly obtained by the hacker group Anonymous from Stratfor, an organisation dealing with analysis of intelligence and geopolitical analysis.

It’s also known as the ‘Shadow CIA’.

Last week, Anonymous announced that it had gotten access to 2.7million of the firm’s confidential correspondences, and said they could provide ‘the smoking gun for a number of crimes’.

The hackers said Stratfor, based in Austin, Texas, were ‘clueless’ when it came to database security.

After bin Laden was killed in the famous raid in Pakistan on May 2 2011, the Obama administration said his body was buried at sea off the USS Carl Vinson – in accordance with Islamic tradition.

But in a particular set of emails given to WikiLeaks, the firm’s vice president for intelligence, Fred Burton, says he doubts the official White House version of what happened to bin Laden’s body.

Stratfor’s vice-president for intelligence, Fred Burton, says the body was ‘bound for Dover, [Delaware] on [a] CIA plane’ and ‘onward to the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in Bethesda [Maryland]’.

The claims are sure to stoke conspiracy theorists, especially since the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology that Burton refers to closed its doors on September 15, 2011, four months after bin Laden’s death.

In another email, Burton said: ‘If body dumped at sea, which I doubt, the touch is very Adolf Eichmann like. The Tribe did the same thing with the Nazi’s ashes’.

Burial: After bin Laden was killed, the Obama administration said his body was buried at sea off the USS Carl Vinson, pictured here, in accordance with Islamic tradition

Final resting place? Leaked emails say Osama bin Laden’s body was transported to the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in Maryland,’ which closed its doors on September 15, 2011

Leaked: Last week, Anonymous announced that it had gotten access to 2.7million of Stratfor’s confidential emails, and claimed they could provide ‘the smoking gun for a number of crimes’

On TV: Bin Laden is shown watching himself on television in this video frame grab released by the U.S. Pentagon May 7, 2011, six days after his death

Safe house destroyed: Osama bin Laden’s Abbottabad, Pakistan, compound is pictured in May 2011 at left, and as it was demolished last week (right)

Viewing the raid: President Obama and his key staffers watch the Navy SEAL mission at Osama bin Laden’s compound in this White House photo

After World War II ended in 1945, he was caught by U.S. forces, and he slipped through America’s fingers when he gave them a phony name.

He wound up in Buenos Aires, Argentina, where he lived for years until he was captured by the Israeli spy agency the Mossad in 1960.

War crimes and crimes against humanity were among the charges he faced when he was found guilty in an Israeli court in 1962.

He was hanged, cremated, and his ashes were later spread over the Mediterranean Sea.

‘Imad Mughniyeh was killed in joint Mossad, CIA operation’

‘Imad Mughniyeh was killed in joint Mossad, CIA operation’

Hezbollah's Imad Mughniyeh, who was killed in 2008. (photo credit: CC BY-SA, Wikimedia Commons)

US operatives were in Damascus for 2008 hit on Hezbollah terror chief, but bomb was triggered in Tel Aviv, Washington Post reports

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Imad Mughniyeh, the global operations chief of Iranian-backed Lebanese terror group Hezbollah who died in a bomb blast in Damascus on February 12, 2008, was reportedly assassinated in a joint Mossad-CIA operation that required special approval from president George W. Bush.

The US helped build the bomb and had CIA spotters on the ground in the Syrian capital tailing Mughniyeh, but the explosion that killed him was triggered remotely from Israel, according to a report in The Washington Post late Friday.The way it was set up, the US could object and call it off, but it could not execute,” a former US intelligence official told the newspaper, adding that the CIA tested the bomb at least 25 times to ensure a contained blast that would cause no collateral damage.

The US official said it was important for Israel to be the one to pull the trigger that killed Mughniyeh. “It was revenge,” he said, adding that the US did not mind since Hezbollah would blame Israel in any case.

The terror group did indeed point the finger at Israel, vowed to retaliate and is believed, with Iranian involvement, to have carried out several consequent attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets abroad, including the 2012 bombing of an Israeli tourist bus in Burgas, Bulgaria and the coordinated attacks in Thailand, Georgia and India that same year. In January 2012, Israel thwarted a plan, already in its advanced stages, to kill the Israeli ambassador to Azerbaijan.

An Israeli emergency rescue team examines the remains of a bus bombed in Bulgaria in July, 2012, allegedly by Hezbollah (Dano Monkotovic/Flash90/JTA)

Imad Mughniyeh was implicated in some of the terror group’s major attacks including the 1992 bombing at the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, and the 1994 bombing of the AMIA building in the Argentinian capital, in which 85 were killed.

The senior Hezbollah terrorist was also involved in the 1983 bombing at the US embassy in Beirut, the killing in 1994 of the CIA’s Lebanon chief William F. Buckley and the 1996 bombing at the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia. In the years after the 2003 US invasion if Iraq, Mughniyeh was responsible for the arming and training of Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq who carried out deadly attacks on American troops — all of which put him at the top of the US’s wanted list.

The Bush administration regarded Hezbollah, and Mughniyeh, as a top threat to the US, according to the report.

“There was an open license to find, fix and finish Mughniyeh and anybody affiliated with him,” a former US official who was stationed in Baghdad told The Washington Post.

In a 2007 speech, Bush singled out Syria and Iran, Hezbollah’s backers and closest allies. “These two regimes are allowing terrorists and insurgents to use their territory to move in and out of Iraq. Iran is providing material support for attacks on American troops. We will disrupt the attacks on our forces. We will interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria. And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq,” he vowed.

The CIA had to get special approval from Bush to carry out the operation to kill Mughniyeh with the US attorney general, the director of national intelligence, the national security adviser and the Office of Legal Counsel at the Justice Department all signing off on the plan. One former official said getting the authorization was a “rigorous and tedious” process.

Then-US president George W. Bush welcomes then-prime minister Ehud Olmert to the Oval Office of the White House, May 2006 (photo credit: Avi Ohayon/GPO/Flash90)

Intelligence officials had to show that Mughniyeh and Hezbollah were a continuing threat to the US. “The decision was we had to have absolute confirmation that it was self-defense,” a former US intelligence official was quoted as saying.

“All I can say is that as long as he drew breath, he was a threat, whether in Lebanon, Iraq or anywhere else. He was a very intelligent, dedicated, effective operator on the black side,” former US ambassador to Iraq, Ryan C. Crocker, told the paper.

The US had been seeking to kill Mughniyeh for years, according to the report, which also detailed a 2002 meeting in Israel between senior officers in the Joint Special Operations Command and Israeli military intelligence where the officers suggested targeting the Hezbollah terror chief.

But those discussions did not lead anywhere at the time, and the opportunity to target Mughniyeh presented itself in 2007 when Israel was gathering intelligence on Syria’s nuclear reactor, before allegedly bombing it that same year. Jerusalem and Washington were also closely monitoring and “trying to sabotage” the Iranian nuclear program during the time, according to the report.

Before and after satellite images of the Syrian nuclear reactor at al-Kibar, which was reportedly struck by Israel in 2007 (AP/DigitalGlobe)

Once it was established that Mughniyeh was operating freely in Damascus, as were the Iranians, a plan was set in motion to attempt the assassination.

The report details an incident in which the deputy head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force was seen with Mughniyeh in the Syrian capital and the opportunity to kill them both presented itself before being shot down. “At one point, the two men were standing there, same place, same street. All they had to do was push the button,” said one former official.

Israel has denied any involvement in the killing of Mughniyeh and the US has never admitted any sort of involvement in the operation. A State Department spokesman said after the killing: “The world is a better place without this man in it. He was a coldblooded killer, a mass murderer and a terrorist responsible for countless innocent lives lost.”

Jihad Mughniyeh sits during a memorial service for his father Imad in his hometown of Tair Debba, south Lebanon on Sunday, Feb. 17, 2008. (photo credit: AP/Tara Todras-Whitehill)

Mughniyeh’s son, Jihad, a Hezbollah commander, was killed on January 18, along with 11 other Lebanese and Iranian operatives, including a general, in an airstrike attributed to Israel, on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights.

The strike reportedly targeted the leaders of a substantial new Hezbollah terror hierarchy, based in the Syrian Golan, that was set to attempt kidnappings, rocket attacks and other assaults on military and civilian targets in northern Israel.

In response, Hezbollah killed two Israeli soldiers on Wednesday in an attack on an IDF convoy on the Israel-Lebanon border. Both Iran and its Lebanese proxy vowed Friday to retaliate forcefully to any Israeli action on Syrian soil.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday held Iran ultimately responsible for Wednesday’s attack, and said Tehran was seeking to open multiple fronts in its “sustained” war against Israel. He slammed the international community for preparing a potential deal with Iran that would leave it with the capacity to build nuclear weapons.

Read more: 'Imad Mughniyeh was killed in joint Mossad, CIA operation' | The Times of Israel http://www.timesofisrael.com/imad-mughniyeh-killed-in-joint-mossad-cia-operation/#ixzz3QQi8zeeB 

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Russia warns West support for Kiev could lead to 'catastrophe'

New volunteers for the Ukrainian Interior Ministry's Azov battalion line up before they depart to the frontlines in eastern Ukraine, in central Kiev January 17, 2015. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's envoy to the European security watchdog OSCE urged the United States and Europe on Thursday to stop supporting the "party of war" in Ukraine and warned "catastrophe" could result, Interfax news agency reported.

"I would like to appeal to the states that have influence on Kiev's leadership, most of all to Washington. It's time to stop indulging Ukraine's party of war," said Russia's OSCE envoy, Andrei Kelin.

A relative of new volunteer for the Ukrainian Interior Ministry's Azov battalion reacts before volunteers depart to the frontlines in eastern Ukraine, in central Kiev January 17, 2015. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich

"Only a big catastrophe can result from such developments."

Russia has increasingly blamed the United States and NATO for the flare-up in violence in eastern Ukraine. The West accuses Moscow of feeding a pro-Russian insurgency with guns and soldiers.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said this week the Ukrainian army itself was a legion of NATO sent to geopolitically contain Russia.

A gunfight at a Ukrainian army checkpoint and an assault in the port city of Mariupol reportedly leaves dozens dead, as Kiev faces an uptick in separatist violence in eastern Ukraine. Pavithra George reports.

"It's time to stop covering (Kiev's) inhuman actions, it is unacceptable to push (them) toward the continuation of war in eastern Ukraine," said Kelin.

Pro-Russian separatists stand next to a military truck in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, January 21, 2015. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko

Russia denies accusations it is sending money, arms or weapons to eastern Ukraine, where a pro-Russian uprising began months after Ukraine's Moscow-backed President Viktor Yanukovich was ousted by street protests.

(Reporting by Thomas Grove; Editing by Timothy Heritage and Andrew Roche)

Britain summons Russian ambassador after bombers intercepted

Russian Tupolev Tu-95 turboprop-powered strategic bombers fly above the Kremlin in Moscow, on May 7, 2014 (AFP Photo/Yuri Kadobnov)

London (AFP) - Britain said it had summoned the Russian ambassador to London on Thursday after Russian bombers were found flying close to British airspace, saying the incident had disrupted civil aviation.

The move comes after a string of similar incidents and amid tense relations with Moscow over the conflict in Ukraine and a London inquiry into the poisoning of former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko.

The Ministry of Defence said such incursions by Russian planes were currently running at around one a month and that the latest happened off the south coast of England.

"Russian aircraft manoeuvres yesterday are part of an increasing pattern of out of area operations by Russian aircraft," the Foreign Office said in a statement.

"While the Russian planes did not enter sovereign UK airspace and were escorted by RAF Typhoons throughout the time they were in the UK area of interest, the Russian planes caused disruption to civil aviation.

"That is why we summoned the Russian Ambassador today to account for the incident."

The defence ministry said that the planes involved in the latest incident Wednesday were Tupolev Tu-95 bombers, known by their NATO classification as Russian "bears".

A spokesman for the Civil Aviation Authority, which regulates aviation, said he was "not sure where this idea has come from" that there had been disruption to civil aviation.

He suggested it may have been the two British Typhoons which caused any disruption as they may have flown through airspace near Bournemouth, southern England, where there is a small civilian airport.

"It was probably two Typhoons that were scrambled to intercept that caused some disruption," he said.

In November, four Russian navy warships were spotted sailing through the English Channel and were accompanied by a Royal Navy patrol boat.

Israel, Hezbollah signal their flare-up is over

By Dan Williams and Laila Bassam

Israeli soldiers carry the flag-draped coffin of Captain Yochai Kalangel during his funeral at Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem January 29, 2015. . REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

Israel said it had received a message from UNIFIL, the U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon, that Hezbollah was not interested in further escalation.JERUSALEM/BEIRUT (Reuters) - Israel and Hezbollah signaled on Thursday their rare flare-up in fighting across the Israel-Lebanon border was over, after the Lebanese guerrillas killed two Israeli troops in retaliation for a deadly air strike in Syria last week.

In Beirut, a Lebanese source briefed on the situation told Reuters that Israel informed Hezbollah via UNIFIL "that it will make do with what happened yesterday and it does not want the battle to expand".

Asked on Israel's Army Radio whether Hezbollah had sought to de-escalate, Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon said: "There are lines of coordination between us and Lebanon via UNIFIL and such a message was indeed received from Lebanon."

A salvo of Hezbollah guided missiles killed an Israeli infantry major and a conscript soldier as they rode in unmarked civilian vehicles along the Lebanese border on Wednesday.

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A family member mourns during the funeral for Captain Yochai Kalangel at Mount Herzl military cemete …

Israel then launched an artillery and air barrage, and a Spanish peacekeeper was killed. Spain's ambassador to the U.N. blamed the Israeli fire for his death. Israel said on Thursday that its deputy foreign minister met the ambassador to voice regret at the death and promise an inquiry.

Wednesday's clash was one of the most serious on that border since 2006, when Hezbollah and Israel fought a 34-day war. Quiet returned on Thursday, though Lebanese media reported overflights by Israeli air force drones.

Both sides appear to share an interest in avoiding further escalation.

Iranian-backed Hezbollah, which fought Israel to a standstill in 2006, is busy backing Damascus in Syria's civil war. It may also be mindful of the ruin Israel has threatened to wreak on Lebanon should they again enter a full-on conflict.

Israel is gearing up for a March 17 general election and gauging the costs of its offensive on the Gaza Strip last year against Palestinian guerrillas, whose arsenal is dwarfed by Hezbollah's powerful long-range rockets.

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An Israeli soldier unloads his weapon near the border with Lebanon January 29, 2015. REUTERS/Baz Rat …

The Lebanese government, of which Hezbollah is a part, said in a statement it was determined to keep stability in southern Lebanon and to deny the "Israeli enemy the chance to drag Lebanon to a wide confrontation".

REVENGE

In a separate interview, Yaalon described Israeli forces on the Lebanese border as being vigilant, but not on war footing.

"I can't say whether the events are behind us," he told Israel Radio. "Until the area completely calms down, the Israel Defense Forces will remain prepared and ready."

Yaalon termed Wednesday's Hezbollah attack "revenge" for the Israeli air strike on Jan. 18 in southern Syria that killed several Hezbollah members, including a senior operative, along with an Iranian general.

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A burnt vehicle is seen near the village of Ghajar on Israel's border with Lebanon January 28, 2 …

Israel has not formally acknowledged carrying out the air strike, but Yaalon said it had set back Hezbollah and Iranian efforts to "open a new front" against Israel from the Syrian Golan Heights.

UNIFIL officials did not confirm or deny passing messages between Israel and Hezbollah.

UNIFIL says it has no contacts with Hezbollah but its head of mission was in close contact with Israel and the Lebanese government throughout the day. The channel of communication "is still open now and it is always open in order to ask the parties to exercise maximum restraint", spokesman Andrea Tenenti said.

During Wednesday's flare-up, Israeli troops launched a search for suspected tunnels that Hezbollah might use to send in guerrillas for a cross-border attack - a tactic employed by Palestinian Hamas fighters during the 2014 Gaza war.

"No tunnels have been found so far," Yaalon told Army Radio.

(Additional reporting by Issam Abdullah in Beirut; Writing by Dan Williams and Ari Rabinovitch; Editing by Jeffrey Heller and Dominic Evans)

Why China is nervous about its role in the world

A general view of the skyline of central business district on February 19, 2013 in Beijing, China.

China’s fear of closer ties between the U.S. and India may indicate growing economic problems at home

This post is in partnership with Time. The article below was originally published at Time.com.

By Sanjay Sanghoee , TIME

In the wake of President Obama’s historic trip to India, China issued an unsolicited and perplexing statement downplaying the relevance of the visit. As the White House pointed out in response, the only thing significant about China’s statement was the fact that the Asian nation felt the need to make it in the first place.

The rivalry between China and India for economic power and strategic control in Asia is longstanding and is likely to continue into the foreseeable future. But China’s taunt is not necessarily a sign of its hostility towards India but an inadvertent admission of its declining supremacy in the region.

China, once an accepted economic and military juggernaut and the darling of investors the world over, is now facing both economic and strategic challenges which could slow down its progress.

First, China’s economy seems to be shrinking. Withindustrial activity trending down and interest rate cuts yet to produce results, it’s looking likely that China’s meteoric economic rise may have peaked and, according to a report from the Conference Board, could lead to a 4% GDP growth rate in the future, which is considerably lower than in previous decades.Further problems plaguing China include a debt overhang, a real estate bubble, lack of competition, and an old-world industrial economy instead of a more modern information economy such as that of the U.S.

In addition, India’s economic growth is predicted tooutpace China’s by 2016, according to the International Monetary Fund, a fact that doesn’t bode well for China’s dominance of Asia. That’s not to say that China will cease to be an economic power but that it may not be able to exert the same clout on the world stage that it once did.

Another major shift could be in China’s ability to use the specter of its military might to secure favorable trade terms with other nations. That specter, even as it grows, could be undermined by higher defense spending by India and Japan (aided by the U.S.), who are eager to contain China. At the same time, China can’t bank on Russia for support since the latter is facing its own crisis from low oil prices and economic sanctions. This could leave China isolated and weaken its position with trading partners.

Finally, there is the democracy factor. The recent protests in Hong Kong were an indication of the tenuousness of China’s draconian control over its people, and possibly of political upheaval to come.

In economic terms, this means that although China has done a fairly good job of balancing free market principles with state run control, the desire of citizens for democracy could force China to relax regulatory control over businesses, embrace labor reform, and truly open its markets in the not-too-distant future. That’s good news for investors but depends heavily on the reaction of the Chinese government, whose response to pro-democracy forces could be unpredictable and severe. Also, a sudden rise in labor costs due to free market forces could in itself disrupt the economic ecosystem in China, and have a negative impact on both domestic and foreign companies that rely on the labor pool.

Given this context, it becomes easier to understand just why China is nervous about closer ties developing between the world’s two largest democracies, the U.S. and India, and why global investors should be wary of the Chinese economic miracle. For sure, China will continue to be an influential player and has demonstrated resilience in the face of difficulties before, but investors looking to make money from the region should still temper their enthusiasm with a realistic assessment of where the nation is now.

Sanjay Sanghoee is a business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, at hedge fund Ramius Capital, and has an MBA from Columbia Business School.

Belarusian leader issues tough warning to Moscow

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko speaks during a news conference in Minsk, Belarus, Thursday, Jan. 29, 2015. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits, Pool)

MINSK, Belarus (AP) — New cracks emerged Thursday in a Russia-led economic alliance, with the president of Belarus warning that his nation may opt out of it.

Alexander Lukashenko also sternly warned Moscow Thursday that his nation of 10 million will never be part of the "Russian world," a term coined by the Kremlin that reflects its hopes to pull ex-Soviet nations closer into its orbit.

"Those who think that the Belarusian land is part as what they call the Russian world, almost part of Russia, forget about it!" Lukashenko said. "Belarus is a modern and independent state."

Lukashenko, who has been at the helm since 1994, has relied on Russia's economic subsidies and political support but bristled at Moscow's attempts to expand its control over Belarusian assets.

He was dubbed "Europe's last dictator" in the West for his relentless crackdown on the opposition and free media, but Belarus' relations with the United States and the European Union have warmed recently as Minsk played host to crucial Ukrainian peace talks.

Lukashenko said he wants to normalize ties with Western nations and issued a clear warning to Moscow that it shouldn't expect Belarus to follow suit in defying the West.

In another signal of growing frictions between the two allies, Lukashenko, who plans to seek another term in elections this year, said he warned Moscow that he wouldn't step down.

"As for sending me into retirement, I harshly told them in the Kremlin that they won't succeed in bending me," he said.

Last month, he accused Moscow of damaging Belarus' economic interests with moves to restrict exports to Russia, which he said violated the rules of the Eurasian Economic Union, a grouping that comprises Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.

On Thursday, Lukashenko warned that if the agreements on forming the alliance aren't observed, "we reserve the right to leave the union."

Belarus, sandwiched between Russia and European Union members Poland and Lithuania, has profited handsomely from Moscow's ban on imports of EU food in retaliation to Western sanctions against Russia by boosting imports of food from the EU nations and reselling the food to Russia.

The Russian authorities have retaliated by restricting imports of Belarus' own milk and meat and banning transit of Belarusian food bound for Kazakhstan through its territory on suspicion that much of it ended up in Russia.