TPA boss blames inefficiency on Ikulu

Dar es Salaam Port  

Dar es Salaam. The Prime Minister’s Office and the State House are to blame for the plight of the Tanzania Ports Authority (TPA) because of too much interference.

This was revealed by TPA’s director general Madeni Kipande, before the newly appointed Transport minister Samuel Sitta, yesterday. The latter was touring the country’s busiest port.

“There are interferences by the State House and the Prime Minister’s Office in some of the decisions we make. I’m being very open with you Mr minister so that you understand how we operate,” Mr Kipande said. He did not however says who is those high offices was intrucing.

Mr Sitta instructed both the board and the management to observe their decision making limits: “Your consultations should be within your mandate, just as I act on mine. People should be able to make decisions within their jurisdiction.”

However, Mr Kipande also said that the Dar es Salaam Port has been making profits, thus contributing positively to the country’s economy.

He said in the last three financial years figures have been promising. Mr Kipande said in 2011/2012 it collected Sh389 billion, in 2012/2013 it collected Sh428 billion and the recent financial year it collected Sh539.7 billion.

Explaining about the investment needed at the port, he said a total of $3 billion is required. He added that if TPA is to depend on its revenues to make this investment, it will need many years to attain the goal.

In his response to some issues raised during his tour at the port, Mr Sitta said it was high time those who derail the efficiency of the port were regarded as ‘saboteurs of the economy.’

He said even in development partner countries, the laws were strict and did not allow anyone to sabotage the economy.

Mr Sitta praised the immediate former minister for Transport, Dr Harrison Mwakyembe, for his efforts to support and improve the authority’s performance, particularly, at the Dar es Salaam Port. He also noted that TPA has surpassed the target of servicing 13 million tonnes to 14 million tonnes annually.

“I assure you that I will continue with the standards set by Mr Mwakyembe. We have been cooperating in many issues,” he said. The minister instructed the TPA board of directors and management to present him with the working plan that aims at making the Dar es Salaam Port the most reliable and efficient.

Pretty Stupid' Bill Gates Reveals Big Regret

The Microsoft founder wishes he had matched Facebook boss Mark Zuckerberg's accomplishment.

The polymath and would-be polyglot (L) with China's president

Proving that even the man who has it all can feel lacking, Microsoft founder Bill Gates has revealed what makes him feel like a fool.

The global philanthropist was asked in an online Reddit "Ask Me Anything" chat on Wednesday if there was anything in his life that he regretted.

"I feel pretty stupid that I don't know any foreign languages," the 59-year-old replied.

"I took Latin and Greek in high school and got As and I guess it helps my vocabulary but I wish I knew French or Arabic or Chinese.

"I keep hoping to get time to study one of these - probably French because it is the easiest."

Zuckerberg Speaks Chinese In Debate

He said he was impressed by Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, whodelighted a Chinese audience last year with his Mandarin skills.

Mr Gates continued: "I did Duolingo for a while but didn't keep it up. Mark Zuckerberg amazingly learned Mandarin and did a Q&A with Chinese students - incredible."

The former Microsoft chief, who is the world's richest man with a net worth of more than $80bn (£53bn), can certainly afford the language lessons.

Jela kwa kufichua siri za kutengeza nuklia

Pedro Leonardo Mascheroni alipatikana na hatia ya kujaribu kuuza siiri za Marekani za kutengeza zana za nuklia

Mwanasayansi wa zamani katika mahabara ya kitaifa mjini Los Amos nchini Marekani amefungwa jela miaka mitano kwa kujaribu kuipatia nchi ya Venezuela siri za kutengeza bomu la nuklia.

Pedro Leonardo Mascheroni alikiri kosa mwaka 2013 la kutoa siri kwa jasusi wa FBI aliyejidai kuwa afisa mkuu kutoka Venezuela.

Pedro Mascheroni, mwenye umri wa miaka 79,anatoka nchini Argentina. Mkewe pia alifungwa jela mwaka mmoja.

Mascheroni alikuwa anachunguzwa kwa karibu mwaka mmoja kabla ya kuchukuliwa hatua.

Shirika la ujasusi la FBI, lilinasa komputa, barua , picha na vitabu kutoka nyumbani kwa mwanasayansi huyo.

Kulingana na stakabadhi za mahakamani, bwana Mascheroni aliambia afisaa huyo wa FBI kwamba angeweza kuisiadia Venezula kutengeza bomu la nuklia kwa kipindi cha miaka kumi.

Marekani imekuwa katika mstari wa mbele kupiga vita nchi zenye miradi ya kutengeza nuklia

Alisema nchi hio ingeweza kutengeza mtambo wa kisiri wa nuklia chini ya ardhi kuisiaidia kurutubisha madini ya Plutonium.

Aliongeza kwamba pia angeisaidia Venezuela kuzalisha kawi ya nuklia.

Bwana Mascheroni alifanya kazi kwa karibu miaka kumi katika kitengo cha kutengeza zana za nuklia katika mahabara ya kitaifa ya Marekani ambako bomu la kwanza la Atomiki lilitengezwa.

Mkewe alikuwa mwandishi wa maswala ya teknolojia katika mahabara hio.

Aliachishwa kazi mwaka 1988

Katika mahojiano na shirika la habari la AP, alisema alifanya mawasiliano na nchi nyingine baada ya wazo lake la kutengeza kawi safi ya nuklia kukataliwa na maafisa wa baraza la Congress.

Mascheroni alisema alifanya mazungumzo na Venezuela, baada ya Marekani kukata wazo lake la kuzalisha kawi safi ya nuklia.

Serikali ya Marekani,imesema kuwa haiamini kuwa Venezuela ilikuwa inajaribu kuiba siri zake za kutengeza zana za nuklia.

Peres on Netanyahu speech: When the US president tells you not to come to US, you don't go

Former president also calls to lower flames after tensions with Hezbollah on Lebanese border. On Thursday criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his upcoming speech before the US Congress that was arranged without the knowledge of US President Barack Obama.

Speaking at a memorial ceremony for former prime minister Ariel Sharon in the Negev, Peres said, "Bibi [Netanyahu] can make speeches at any place or date, but when the President of the United States asks him not to come before elections, he must respect that request."

Peres also addressed the tension between Israel and Hezbollah after an attack that killed two IDF soldiers on Wednesday, saying that "both sides understand that there is no choice but to cease their fire."

"The main consideration now must be to lower the flames and not to make speeches," he said.

Netanyahu said at the same ceremony for Sharon that Iran was behind yesterday's attack on IDF vehicles traveling close to the Lebanese border.

"This is the same Iran that is trying to reach an agreement whereby it will be allowed to maintain the ability to develop nuclear weapons. We are resolutely opposed to such an agreement," Netanyahu said.

"We will continue to defend ourselves from all threats both near and far," the prime minister said.  

Referring to Sharon by his informal moniker "Arik," Netanyahu said the late former prime minister understood very well the nature of the Iranian regime, and that what Sharon said is still valid today. 

China takes over nearby islands and turns them into military bases

Satellite photos taken by the Israeli company ImageStat reveal how China has been taking over islands and undergoing heavy construction to make them into military bases in an area rich with oil and gas.

Satellite photos taken by the Israeli company ImageStat reveal how China has taken over a series of islands along China’s coast, islands which do not even belong to China, for military purposes. The photos, which were published this morning (Wednesday), give an indication of China’s military strengthening under the radar of world leaders.

The company described these developments as “secret Chinese imperialism” in the sunken islands, which are slightly underwater. China now holds four islands in the heart of the South China Sea. One of these islands called Cross Fieri Reef is described by ImageStat as “the largest ocean construction project in the world at this moment, perhaps ever."  

The island was previously the site of an old Chinese military base, which was built upon pillars above water. The once small and rickety base has turned into a wide fortress, with arrangements to build a seaport and airport.

Construction on the island Photo Credit: ImageStat / Channel 2 News

The company’s analysis is based on the findings of an Aerospace industry B Eros satellite, a satellite of high resolution, which can film any point of the world. Last July, the satellite detected ships on the other side of the island, a few kilometers from the old military base. In August, the beginning of construction was detected along a half-a-kilometer strip of the Island.

China later increased its construction efforts, sending five ships to the island for pumping and transportation purposes. ImageStat estimates that the Island has grown to about four square kilometers, following a Chinese investment of billions of dollars. Construction efforts on the island take place around the clock. Photos from January depict a massive advancement in construction, which includes filling the heart of the island with sand in preparation for further expansion of the island. Photos taken four days ago show a coastal strip being cleared off for a landing field and seaport.

"Secret Chinese imperialism" Photo Credit: ImageStat / Channel 2 News

30% of worldwide sea shipping goes through the part of the ocean where these islands reside. In recent years, oil and gas deposits were discovered there. Thus, claims for ownership of the area means not only the islands, but the economic waters surrounding them. ImageStat estimates that the vast investment in the islands is a long-term one, in order to establish China’s control over the gas and oil reserves.

CIA agent convicted of leaking classified information

The former agent was fired from his position and leaked classified information as revenge.

A former CIA officer was convicted of leaking classified information about a plan to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program. 

Jeffery Sterling, 47, was convicted of nine counts of unauthorized transferring of national security information and other charges of leaking information that according to the claim could “endanger lives and put one of the only plans that America has against Iran’s nuclear program at risk."  

Photo Credit: Channel 2 News/AP

Sterling was first accused in 2010 of leaking classified information to Pulitzer Prize winning journalist James Risen.  The prosecution claimed that Sterling wanted revenge against the CIA so he shared the information about an operation aimed to thwart Iran’s nuclear program.  Sterling, who was fired from his job in 2000, sued the agency for alleged discrimination and even spoke to his colleagues about publishing a memoir that described some of his work as a CIA agent.  

The Obama administration suffered the most from the leaked information out of all of the previous administrations.  The federal prosecutor thought about forcing the journalist James Risen to testify against his will, but in the end decided not to put him on the stand.  Risen said that he would rather go to jail than testify against the source. 

The prosecution claimed in court that Sterling’s actions severely damaged the interests of the United States.  Not only because the plan now has to be canceled, but the prosecutor even claimed that the leaked information also endangered Russian scientists who were working to provide faulty materials to Iran.  “What happened here is a most serious matter,” said the prosecutor.  

The prosecutor also claimed that Sterling was the only person who had a relationship with Risen and that he was the only person to have a motive to leak such information.  

The defense argued that it was unlikely that Sterling leaked the information and some of the cases in the book took place after Sterling left the agency or contained information that he did not know.  Sterling’s sentence is expected to take place on the 24th of April and until then, he remains free.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Boasts: U.S. Can’t Stop Our Nukes

(CNSNews.com) – Russia’s deputy prime minister boasted on Sunday that the U.S. could not stop a Russian nuclear attack due to what he claims are breakthroughs in his nation’s “combat missile technologies,” the Moscow Timesreported.

“We will not disclose those technical details to anybody,” Dmitry Rogozin is quoted as saying during a televised talk show on Russia’s state-run Rossiya channel.

“But I can tell you one thing: The work conducted today on combat missile technologies … shows that neither the current, nor even the projected American missile defense system could stop or cast doubt on Russia's strategic missile potential,” Rogozin said.

The Russian’s saber-rattling came just a week before members of NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group are scheduled to meet in Brussels on February 5th.

“I can confirm that there will be a regular meeting of the Nuclear Planning Group next week during the Defence Ministerial,” a NATO official told CNSNews.com. “But we never comment on the content of those planning group meetings.”

However, there is speculation in Europe that the talks will include the increasing intrusion of Russian bombers into NATO's Baltic airspace.

"Alliance fighter jets while patrolling Baltic airspace made more than 150 flights in 2014, or four times more than in the previous year, to [intercept] Russian fighter bombers," according to Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, a German newspaper.

Last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergie Larov also told the Interfax news agency that Moscow had every right to deploy nuclear weapons in the Crimea, which it annexed last March.

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a thumbs up as he watches a launch of Angara-A5 rocket booster in Moscow on Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2014. (AP Photo)

In September, President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was developing a new series of offensive nuclear and conventional weapons that could penetrate any missile defense shield and would provide his country with a "guaranteed nuclear deterrent."

Putin also accused NATO and the U.S. of becoming "hysterical" over what he called Russia's "countermeasures to ensure our security."

In 2009, President Obama abandoned plans by the Bush administration to install anti-ballistic missile bases in Poland and the Czech Republic after Russian officials strenuously objected.

Since then, "Russia's relations with the West have plunged to their lowest point since the Cold War due to Russia's role in the crisis in Ukraine," the Associated Press reported.

Hezbollah will pay 'full price' for deadly attack: Israel

Majidiya (Lebanon) (AFP) - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Lebanon's Hezbollah it will pay the "full price" after missiles killed two Israeli soldiers in an attack that raised fears of another all-out war.

A Spanish UN peacekeeper was killed as Israel and Hezbollah exchanged artillery fire -- the most serious clashes between the bitter enemies in years -- following the attack by the Shiite militant group.

"Those behind today's attack will pay the full price," Netanyahu's office quoted him as saying at a meeting with Israeli's top security brass Wednesday evening.

The two soldiers were killed when Hezbollah fired an anti-tank missile at a military convoy in an Israeli-occupied border area, the army said.

Seven other soldiers were wounded, but none were reported to have suffered life-threatening injuries.

The UN Security Council called an emergency meeting to discuss ways to defuse tensions between the two sides, who fought a month-long war in 2006.

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Israeli soldiers carry an injured comrade after an anti-tank missile hit an army vehicle in an occup …

Israel responded to the Hezbollah shelling with "combined aerial and ground strikes" on southern Lebanon -- an apparent retaliation for a recent Israeli strike on the Golan Heights that killed senior Hezbollah members.

The United States stood by Israel after the exchange of fire and condemned Hezbollah's shelling of an Israeli military convoy.

"We support Israel's legitimate right to self-defence and continue to urge all parties to respect the blue line between Israel and Lebanon," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters.

EU foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini appealed for an "immediate cessation of hostilities".

Lebanese security sources told AFP that Israeli forces had hit several villages along the border.

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Smoke from Israeli shelling covers a United Nation Interim Force in Lebanon in the Lebanese border-t …

Clouds of smoke could be seen rising from Majidiya village, one of the hardest hit. There was no immediate information on casualties.

A 36-year-old Spanish corporal from the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon was killed in the exchange of fire, officials said.

It said the precise cause of the peacekeeper's death was "as yet undetermined" and urged all sides to show "maximum restraint to prevent an escalation".

Hezbollah said it had targeted an Israeli military convoy "transporting several Zionist soldiers and officers".

- 'Very harsh' response -

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Israeli soldiers treat their comrades after an anti-tank missile hit an army vehicle in an occupied  …

"There were several casualties in the enemy's ranks," Hezbollah said.

Israel said mortar fire was also aimed across the border at several military facilities. There were no casualties.

Hardline Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Israel should respond to the attack "in a very harsh and disproportionate manner, as China or the US would respond to similar incidents".

Army spokesman Brigadier General Moti Almoz warned Israel was considering further action.

"This is not necessarily the last response," he wrote on Twitter.

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An Israeli howitzer is stationed near the border with Syria in the Golan Heights, on January 28, 201 …

Hezbollah's attack was hailed by the Palestinian Islamist groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

"We affirm Hezbollah's right to respond to the Israeli occupation," Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said, while Jihad's Quds Brigade praised the attack as "heroic".

Israeli security sources said at least one house had been hit in the divided village of Ghajar, which straddles the border between Israel and Lebanon.

"Three houses were hit by rockets," said Hussein, 31, relaying what he had heard by telephone from relatives in the village of 2,000 inhabitants.

He said a number of villagers had been wounded but did not know how badly.

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A Hezbollah militant takes part in a military parade in the southern city of Nabatiyeh, on November  …

Other frantic family members argued with police to be allowed in to collect their children, who had been locked inside the village school for their own safety.

- Building tensions -

Tension in the area had been building, especially after an Israeli air strike on the Syrian sector of the Golan Heights killed six Hezbollah fighters and an Iranian general on January 18.

The day before the raid, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened to retaliate against Israel for its repeated strikes on targets in Syria and boasted the Shiite militant movement was stronger than ever.

Israeli warplanes also struck Syrian army targets in the Golan Heights early on Wednesday, hours after rockets hit the Israeli-held sector.

During a Wednesday evening meeting with senior military and intelligence officials, Netanyahu sent a warning to the government of Lebanon and to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

"The government of Lebanon and the Assad regime share responsibility for the consequences of attacks originating in their territory against the state of Israel," he said.

Israeli army spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Peter Lerner said Wednesday's attack was the "most severe" Israel had faced since 2006, when it fought a month-long war with Hezbollah that killed more than 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and some 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.

Israel occupied parts of Lebanon for 22 years until 2000 and the two countries are still technically at war.

Wednesday's missile attack was on Israeli forces in the Shebaa Farms area, a mountainous, narrow sliver of land occupied by Israel since 1967.

Commander: Army’s New AH-64E Apache Surprised Enemy in Afghanistan

The commander of the first U.S. Army unit to fly combat missions in Afghanistan with the AH-64E Apache -- the service's newest version of the attack helicopter -- praised the performance of the aircraft.

Lt. Col. John Davis, commander of the 1st Battalion, 229th Aviation Regiment, part of the 16th Combat Aviation Brigade at Joint Base Lewis McCord in Washington, said his unit operated in southern and western Afghanistan last year with two dozen Echo models of the Boeing-made choppers, along with 15 OH-58D Kiowa Warriors and 10 UH-60M Black Hawks.

The AH-64E features digital cockpit avionics, more powerful engines and composite rotor blades, among other features that improve the aircraft's range and loitering ability, Davis said. Taken together, the helicopters flew almost 11,000 hours over a seven-month tour in Kandahar and other areas in Regional Command-South, Southwest and West, he said.

"Short deployment? Yes, but nobody told the enemy that because the ops tempo was very, very high," Davis said on Wednesday during a briefing with reporters at Boeing's new office complex in Arlington, Virginia, just across the street from the Pentagon.

The D-model of the Apache was named the Longbow. The E-model received the moniker of Guardian.

The unit headed overseas with only about 270 troops, just over half of its preferred level of personnel, yet was able to maintain the Apaches with a readiness rate of 87 percent, higher than the Army standard of 80 percent, Davis said. The figure refers to the amount of time a piece of equipment can carry out missions, known in military parlance as being fully mission capable (FMC).

The E-model flew in Afghanistan at speeds of about 155 knots, or almost 180 miles per hour, while he himself only flew the D variant in Iraq at speeds of about 125 knots, or nearly 140 miles per hour, Davis said.

The faster speeds cut the amount of time it took aviators to reach front-line troops by 57 percent, Davis said. What's more, the improved fuel efficiency helped pilots pin down enemies by loitering in the area for longer periods of time, he said. The characteristics were particularly useful at a time when the U.S. military was consolidating and closing bases, he said.

"There's no place to get gas out there anymore, so what did you need?" Davis said. "You needed something that had fuel economy. You needed something that could get there fast and stay there. That's what the Echo brought. We were able to change some of the ways we did business. I didn't have a ground launch reaction force; I put them in the air."

He added, "The enemy knew what the [tactics, techniques and procedures] were for the D model. They knew where it came from when it got gas, when it showed up on station. They knew roughly how much time it's got to get gas again. Then all of a sudden an E shows up and the E doesn't have to get gas at the same time. Now, the enemy on the ground is literally going, 'I can't move.'"

The Echo model also worked well with a number of drones, including the Army's own medium-altitude MQ-1C Gray Eagle made by General Atomics and lower-altitude systems such as the ScanEagle RQ-7 Shadow, as well as the Air Force's medium-altitude MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper drones, Davis said. Some 60 percent of the unit's direct-fire engagements took place in conjunction with unmanned systems, he said.

"It wasn't them always finding a target, it was them maintaining positive ID of a target," Davis said, referring to drones. "They can stay up a lot longer than we can, so if they've been developing situation for a while, then it's easier for us and easier for a commander to utilize his limited assets like an Echo model, to say, 'OK, you've developed it, the target's good, send the Echo in now.' He executes his mission, services the target, and then returns and goes another priority mission."

He added, "Having an unmanned system that could get up a lot higher and still have those capabilities that it brings to the fight ... and allowing us to have the standoff where we're not seen and heard -- there's a lot to be said for that."

There were some shortcomings, however, with pairing the AH-64E and drones, Davis acknowledged. The new helicopter couldn't receive live video feeds from the Shadow because the former uses a secure communications system called the tactical common data link on a Ku frequency while the latter use an older system on the C, L and S bands, he said.

"We couldn't see everybody else's video, so you go old school: You talk to the guy -- you talk to boots on the ground," Davis said, noting that the aircraft could still receive video from the Gray Eagle. "Actually, the E is ahead of its time when it comes to having the tactical common data link. Everybody at one point will be at that band on their systems. We're just ahead of it."

Still, the Army is talking to Boeing about adding the other frequencies to the E model's data system because the rest of the joint environment and everybody else hasn't caught up to TCDL yet."

-- Brendan McGarry can be reached at brendan.mcgarry@military.com

Pentagon official urges NATO to focus on innovative weapons

By Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work on Wednesday urged NATO allies to develop and make more innovative weapons, and said bold action was needed to stay ahead of rapid weapons development by China, Russia and other countries.

Work said the Pentagon has a new plan called "Defense Innovation Initiative" and a separate effort targeting longer-term projects to ensure that the United States continues to have a decisive competitive advantage against potential foes.

"We must coordinate and collaborate, avoid duplication, leverage niche capabilities, and push our establishments to innovate in technology, concepts, experimentation, and wargaming," Work told a conference hosted by the Center for a New American Security. NATO members needed to make good their vows last year to spend 2 percent of national output on defense, he said.

Work said it was critical to increase collaboration with allies in NATO, Asia and other areas, ranging from mission planning to investments in new weapons programs.

General Jean-Paul Palomeros of France, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, told the conference that NATO was looking at innovative approaches, including increased training and more joint exercises.

Work said concerns about advances by other countries were a key reason that the Pentagon's fiscal 2016 budget plan to be delivered to Congress on Monday will exceed budget caps set by Congress and reverse five years of declines in U.S. military spending.

He gave no details, but said the budget would include "significant" investments in nuclear weapons, space control capabilities, advanced sensors, missile defense and cyber, as well as unmanned undersea vehicles, high-speed strike weapons, a new jet engine, high-energy lasers and rail gun technology.

Work said the plans need to address different threats in different regions, and should leverage work by commercial firms on robotics, autonomous operations and other key technologies.

Lockheed Martin Corp , Boeing Co , and other key weapons makers have repeatedly urged the Pentagon to step up investments in key technologies.

Pentagon arms buyer Frank Kendall told the House Armed Services Committee in a separate hearing that he was deeply concerned about heavy investments by China, Russia and others in weapons designed to target critical U.S. military capabilities such as aircraft carriers and satellites.

"I am very concerned about the increasing risk of loss of U.S. military technological superiority," he said. "We're at risk and the situation is getting worse."

Kendall said the department would also earmark funds for development and prototyping of a new "next-generation X-plane" that would eventually succeed the F-35 fighter jet, and a new engine.

(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Bernard Orr and Lisa Shumaker)

Sanctions Aren't Enough to Stop Putin, and He Knows It

The European Union wants to tighten sanctions on Russia again, as renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine causes heavy casualties and raises fears that Russian-backed separatists will seize control of more territory.

The EU, in a statement issued today, said it saw "evidence of continued and growing support given to the separatists by Russia, which underlines Russia's responsibility" for the bloodshed. On Jan. 29, EU foreign ministers are expected to consider widening a list of Russians and separatist leaders facing visa bans and asset freezes.

No question, the situation is dire. Thirty people died and more than 100 were injured in the strategic port city of Mariupol in a Jan. 24 rocket attack that international observers said was launched from separatist-held territory. Insurgent supporters of Russian President Vladimir Putin have stepped up attacks along a more than 100-mile-long front, including places such as Mariupol that until now had largely been spared from fighting. The Ukrainian government says thousands of Russian troops and tanks are rolling into the country, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe says the separatists are preventing its observers from monitoring the border.

Alas, the sanctions being considered by the EU are unlikely to change any of this.

"If you really want to have an effect on the economy in Russia, you would need to ramp up sanctions dramatically, and nobody is prepared to do that," says Carsten Nickel, senior vice president of Teneo Intelligence in Berlin.

The EU is Russia's biggest trading partner, and Europe Inc. is already feeling the pinch as sanctions imposed last summer curbed exports to Russia and helped tip the Russian economy into recession. Getting all 28 EU nations to agree on much tougher sanctions would be extremely difficult, especially considering Europe's current economic difficulties. Indeed, the newly elected government in Greeceobjected today to the sanctions plan set for discussion on Jan. 29, saying it hadn't been consulted. That could throw a wrench into the works, since the plan would require a unanimous EU vote. (The U.S. doesn't face this dilemma; also, it doesn't do much trade with Russia.)

Putin knows all this. In fact, the current offensive in eastern Ukraine seems tailored to exploit the situation. If the separatists consolidate their positions now, they could then agree to a cease-fire allowing them to keep the territory they've gained. Under that scenario, the fighting would taper off by springtime. By mid-summer, when the EU and U.S. have to decide whether to renew the most onerous sanctions now in place against Russia, things would have been fairly calm for a few months—making it easier to argue that sanctions should be loosened or lifted. "Strategically, this is very smart," Nickel says.

The other dilemma for the West is that sanctions may have helped Putin more than they've hurt him, letting him position himself as a martyr and giving him a convenient scapegoat for Russia's worsening economy. That's the opinion of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former oil company chief who spent a decade in prison after challenging Putin's authority. In a Jan. 16 speech in Lithuania, Khodorkovsky saidKremlin propaganda had persuaded most Russians that Western sanctions were an unfair attack on their nation.

"We can confidently say that the sanctions have played their positive role," he said. However, maintaining long-term sanctions in their current form "looks questionable. " 

Matlack is a Paris correspondent for Bloomberg Businessweek.